Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya Household strategies and

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya Household strategies and determinants

JournalofEnvironmentalManagement114(2013)26e35

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JournalofEnvironmentalManagement

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AdaptingagriculturetoclimatechangeinKenya:Householdstrategiesanddeterminants

ElizabethBryana,*,ClaudiaRinglera,BarrackOkobab,CarlaRoncolic,SilviaSilvestrid,MarioHerrerod

a

InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivision,2033KStreetNW,Washington,DC20006,USAKenyaAgriculturalResearchInstitute-Kabete,P.O.Box14733-00800,WaiyakiWay,Nairobi,Kenyac

EmoryUniversity,EmoryUniversityMailstop1599-001-1BY,1599CliftonRoad,NEAtlanta,GA30322,USAd

InternationalLivestockResearchInstitute,P.O.Box30709,Nairobi00100,Kenya

b

articleinfo

Articlehistory:

Received23September2011Receivedinrevisedform24September2012

Accepted3October2012

Availableonline30November2012Keywords:

ClimatechangeAdaptationKenya

Agriculture

abstract

CountriesinSub-SaharanAfricaareparticularlyvulnerabletoclimatechange,givendependenceonagriculturalproductionandlimitedadaptivecapacity.BasedonfarmhouseholdandParticipatoryRuralAppraisaldatacollectedfromdistrictsinvariousagroecologicalzonesinKenya,thispaperexaminesfarmers’perceptionsofclimatechange,ongoingadaptationmeasures,andfactorsin uencingfarmers’decisionstoadapt.Theresultsshowthathouseholdsfaceconsiderablechallengesinadaptingtoclimatechange.Whilemanyhouseholdshavemadesmalladjustmentstotheirfarmingpracticesinresponsetoclimatechange(inparticular,changingplantingdecisions),fewhouseholdsareabletomakemorecostlyinvestments,forexampleinagroforestryorirrigation,althoughthereisadesiretoinvestinsuchmeasures.Thisemphasizestheneedforgreaterinvestmentsinruralandagriculturaldevelopmenttosupporttheabilityofhouseholdstomakestrategic,long-termdecisionsthataffecttheirfuturewell-being.

Ó2012ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.

1.Introduction

ClimatechangeisexpectedtoadverselyaffectagriculturalproductioninAfrica.Arangeofclimatemodelssuggestmediantemperatureincreasesbetween3 Cand4 CinAfricabytheendofthe21stCentury,roughly1.5timestheglobalmeanresponse.Thiswilllikelyresultinsigni cantyieldlossesofkeystaplecrops,suchasmaize,sorghum,millet,groundnut,andcassava,ofbetween8and22percentby2050unlesskeyinvestmentsaremadetoimproveagriculturalproductivityunderclimaterisk(SchlenkerandLobell,2010).InEastAfrica,thereareveryfewplaceswhererainfallmeansarelikelytodecrease;however,increasesinrainfallareunlikelytoincreaseagriculturalproductivityasaresultofunfavorablespacingandtimingofprecipitation.Becauseofthisvariability,coupledwithanexpectedincreaseinevapotranspira-tionduetohighertemperatures,Kenyaisexpectedtoexperiencecountry-widelossesintheproductionofkeystaples,suchasmaize(Herreroetal.,2010).

CountriesinSub-SaharanAfricaareparticularlyvulnerabletoadverseimpactsfromclimatechange,becauseoftheirlimited

*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:þ12028625605.E-mailaddress:e.bryan@cgiar.org(E.

Bryan).

0301-4797/$eseefrontmatterÓ2012ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.doc.xuehai.net

capacitytoadapt.ThedevelopmentchallengesthatmanyAfricancountriesfacearealreadyconsiderable,andclimatechangewillonlyaddtothesethroughlossesinfarmpro ts(Kurukulasuriyaetal.,2006).Theseimpactsareparticularlyimportantforcoun-triessuchasKenya,wherethepovertyrateis52percentand73percentofthelaborforcedependsonagriculturalproductionfortheirlivelihood(FAOSTAT,2010).Becauseagriculturalproductionremainsthemainsourceofincomeformostruralcommunitiesintheregion,adaptationisimperativetoenhancetheresilienceoftheagriculturesector,protectthelivelihoodsofthepoor,andensurefoodsecurity.Atthenationallevel,thiswillrequiregreaterinvestmentsindroughtandheattolerantvarieties,irrigationsystems,disasterrelief,insuranceandsocialprotectionprograms,andintegratedstrategiestoreducelivelihoodrisks(Howdenetal.,2007;SchlenkerandLobell,2010).Italsorequiresadjustmentsatthefarmhouseholdandcommunityscales.

Adaptationtoclimatechangeatthefarmlevelincludesmanypossibleresponses,suchaschangesincropmanagementpractices(e.g.choiceof elds,plantingdates,plantingdensities,cropvarie-ties),livestockmanagementpractices(e.g.livestockchoice,feedingandanimalhealthpractices,transhumancetiminganddestina-tions),landuseandlandmanagement(e.g.fallowing,treeplantingorprotection,irrigationandwaterharvesting,soilandwaterconservationmeasures,tillagepractices,soilfertilitymanagement)

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